{"id":38193,"date":"2026-03-18T11:45:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T00:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/?post_type=australianoutlook&p=38193"},"modified":"2026-03-18T11:45:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T00:45:54","slug":"watching-the-war-how-to-think-about-the-emerging-conflict-with-iran","status":"publish","type":"australianoutlook","link":"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/watching-the-war-how-to-think-about-the-emerging-conflict-with-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Watching the War: How to Think About the Emerging Conflict with Iran\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This was always going to be a complicated campaign. Modern wars rarely follow a predetermined plan, especially when conventional armies, proxy networks, and developing technology are involved. While early rounds may include decisive strikes against symmetric targets, the conflict’s trajectory will most likely be decided by less evident elements. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am always hesitant to remark on ongoing confrontations in real time. It can sometimes feel like an armchair quarterback exercise analysis conducted without complete facts. However, as the current crisis with Iran evolves, many analysts are attempting to make sense of what might happen next. When asked about the conflict, I usually frame it as a tool to consider the variables that influence occurrences rather than a prediction exercise.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, Western forces have demonstrated significant overmatch when attacking conventional infrastructure or command nodes.<\/a> However, the most difficult aspect of modern conflict is the asymmetric arena in which enemies compensate for technological deficiencies through adaptability, proxies, and low-cost technology.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is when wars transition from linear planning to what military strategists refer to as branch plans rather than sequels.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several aspects stand out as being particularly significant in\u00a0determining\u00a0how this dispute develops.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Drone and Missile Equation<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the most crucial operational aspects to monitor in the fight with Iran is the competition between offensive missile and drone systems and defensive networks aiming to intercept them.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has invested years developing a diverse range of unmanned aircraft systems, including the Shahed-series loitering weapons.<\/a> These systems rose to prominence during Russian invasion of Ukraine<\/a>, when Russian forces employed Iranian-designed Shahed drones<\/a> to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure and urban targets<\/a>. Their attraction is straightforward: they are reasonably priced, have a broad operational range, and can be deployed in huge numbers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economic asymmetry they generate is critical to their strategic significance. A drone that costs tens of thousands of dollars can force defences to spend hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars per shot on interceptions. Even if interceptions are tactically successful, this imbalance can put a drain on defensive resources over time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A colleague in the United Kingdom once referred to these drones as “flying IEDs.” The parallel is simplistic, but increasingly accurate: simple, scalable weapons that impose disproportionate defensive costs.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What’s noteworthy is how swiftly this technology has spread beyond state actors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Houthis<\/a> in Yemen<\/a> have consistently shown this. Since late 2023, they have launched drones and anti-ship missiles against commercial vessels passing through<\/a> the Red Sea, disrupting one of the world’s most crucial commerce routes. These attacks prompted international reactions, including the US-led Naval Security Initiative known as Operation Prosperity Guardian<\/a>, which intended to secure shipping waterways. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Hezbollah<\/a> has expanded its drone capabilities along the Israel<\/a> border. The group has deployed reconnaissance drones and loitering weapons to investigate Israeli air defences and gather intelligence<\/a>. Many of these systems have been successfully intercepted by Israeli systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling, but the frequency of launches illustrates how drones are increasingly being utilised for more than just strikes, such as continual surveillance and psychological pressure.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps most striking is the degree to which drone technology has spread even among groups with limited industrial capacity. 
 
Militant groups operating in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region are increasingly using commercially adapted drones for reconnaissance and attack. According to reports from Pakistan<\/a> security officials, terrorists affiliated with Taliban<\/a> factions and related groups have employed drone-based explosives and surveillance platforms to attack security checkpoints and military positions, mainly in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These achievements point to a bigger trend: the democratisation of airpower.  
For the most of modern military history, powers with powerful aircraft and expensive infrastructure dominated the air domain. Today, relatively inexpensive unmanned technologies enable both state and non-state players to compete in that sector.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The essential question going ahead is not whether drones will remain central to modern conflict, they undoubtedly will. The challenge is whether defensive technologies can evolve quickly enough to deal with their growing scale, cost asymmetry, and increased autonomy.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In wars ranging from Ukraine to the Middle East, the battlefield has already begun to provide answers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy Flows and the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second component, the flow of energy via the Gulf, is both economic and military in nature.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Strait of Hormuz<\/a> remains one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints. Approximately a fifth<\/a> of global oil consumption passes via this small channel that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disruptions in this region have far-reaching consequences.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, the strait has suffered harassment and occasional attacks, although it has never been completely closed. Even during the 1980s tanker assaults during the Iran\u2013Iraq War<\/a>, shipping remained at high danger.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If marine traffic were severely impeded today, the following repercussions would be immediate: <\/p>\n\n\n\n