{"id":38221,"date":"2026-03-24T11:48:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T00:48:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/?post_type=australianoutlook&#038;p=38221"},"modified":"2026-03-24T14:39:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T03:39:07","slug":"australia-needs-the-strategic-agility-of-olympic-sailing-in-uncharted-waters","status":"publish","type":"australianoutlook","link":"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/australia-needs-the-strategic-agility-of-olympic-sailing-in-uncharted-waters\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia Needs the Strategic Agility of Olympic Sailing in Uncharted Waters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>The events of February 2026 have confirmed that Australia can no longer afford to plan for one crisis at a time. An Australian Olympic sailor, an international business scholar, and an international security expert argue that Olympic sailing offers a precise model for the strategic agility Australia now requires.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In May 2025, we argued in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/australia-needs-strategic-reconfiguration-in-the-asia-pacific\/\">Australian Outlook<\/a> that Australia needed strategic reconfiguration in the Asia-Pacific to withstand mounting trade volatility and geopolitical pressure. Since then, the situation has escalated beyond what most policymakers anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that the President could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Within hours, the administration pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a new 10 per cent global tariff. Estimates vary, <a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/research\/all\/federal\/trump-tariffs-trade-war\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">but most place the average effective US tariff rate<\/a> at roughly 10 to 14 per cent, levels not seen since the mid-twentieth century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eight days later, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil transits, was effectively shut\u2014major shipping firms, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, suspended operations. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, triggering <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-climbs-tankers-are-attacked-iraqi-waters-amid-middle-east-war-2026-03-12\/\">significant volatility in global markets<\/a> and raising inflation concerns for central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Australia, the exposure is immediate and severe. The country imports roughly 90 per cent of its liquid fuel. It holds only about 34 days of diesel reserves, well below the International Energy Agency\u2019s 90-day benchmark, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-iran-war-has-triggered-a-fuel-price-rise-what-does-this-mean-for-australian-consumers-277605\">a requirement Australia has not met for over a decade<\/a>. Petrol prices are already rising sharply, with increases of close to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/mar\/13\/australia-to-release-nearly-20-of-fuel-stockpile-as-bowen-insists-country-nowhere-near-running-out\">50 cents per litre<\/a> reported in some cities following the crisis. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/mar\/14\/global-food-supplies-iran-war-fertiliser-yara-svein-tore-holsether\">Fertiliser<\/a> supplies from the Gulf, critical ahead of planting season, are under threat. From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/mar\/17\/iran-war-energy-uk-europe-steel-chemicals\">agriculture<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/mar\/12\/flights-airlines-hike-prices-airfares-iran-war-middle-east-oil\">aviation<\/a>, sectors are already feeling the pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rewriting the competitive logic of entire industries, Quantum Computing is approaching commercial viability, and <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1057\/s41267-025-00783-1\">Space<\/a> assets are <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2023\/01\/space-is-going-commercial-in-asia-but-theres-a-rocky-road-ahead\/\">becoming<\/a> contested <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/sky-no-longer-limit-australia-east-asia-space\">strategic terrain<\/a>. These forces have not arrived one by one. They have arrived together and are interacting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This convergence may seem unprecedented for policymakers, but it&#8217;s familiar territory for Olympic sailors. One of our colleagues competed at the Paris 2024 Games in Marseille and has spent years racing in conditions defined by exactly this kind of simultaneous, unpredictable change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before one Olympic race, a critical piece of rigging failed as the crew headed to the course. The boat was still sailable but locked into a single performance mode, unable to adjust to changing conditions. Without fixing it before the start, the race would have been over before it began. The crew repaired what they could and arrived at the start line moments before the gun in the biggest race of their lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That experience mirrors what Australia is navigating right now. And two concepts from the sport speak directly to Australia&#8217;s strategic posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tacking Through Multiple Crises<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In sailing, it&#8217;s physically impossible to sail directly upwind. Progress necessitates tacking, a zigzag course where the crew alternates between angles, making lateral moves that ultimately carry the boat forward. From above, it looks inefficient. From the cockpit, it&#8217;s the only way to reach your destination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/australia-needs-strategic-reconfiguration-in-the-asia-pacific\/\">Australia&#8217;s strategic reconfiguration<\/a> demands a similar approach. Deepening ties with India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, as we argued in our earlier piece, isn&#8217;t a straightforward path from vulnerability to resilience. It requires calculated lateral moves. Piloting new trade partnerships before committing fully, diversifying energy sourcing before the next corridor closes, investing in emerging strategic domains like Space technology, where Australia already has cooperative agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and building relationships across multiple regions in addition to an existing alliance or trade routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The security dimension adds urgency. Australia cannot simply optimise for commercial returns in regions with elevated geopolitical risk. It must strike a balance between commercial opportunity and security exposure, adjusting course as alignments shift and regulatory environments evolve. The current Middle East crisis makes this painfully clear. In the days following the February 28 strikes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-05\/japanese-oil-refiners-ask-government-to-tap-strategic-reserves\">Japanese refiners, which source approximately 95 per cent of their crude from Gulf states, requested the government to release strategic oil stockpiles.<\/a> Australia&#8217;s own response options are constrained precisely because earlier choices narrowed the room to manoeuvre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Policymakers who insist on a straight-line strategy in the current environment will find themselves stalled, much like a sailboat facing directly into the wind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Australia&#8217;s Apparent Wind<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a concept in sailing that warrants serious attention in Canberra, i.e., apparent wind. The wind a sailor feels on the boat is not the true wind. It is a combination of the actual wind and the boat&#8217;s own motion. Two boats in the same water, in the same breeze, can experience fundamentally different conditions based entirely on their own speed and direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This explains why Australia&#8217;s experience of the Hormuz crisis differs sharply from that of its neighbours. Japan sources roughly 90 per cent of its crude oil from the Gulf and faces an acute, immediate energy risk. The United States, now a net energy exporter, is relatively insulated and may even benefit from higher global prices. Australia sits somewhere in between, heavily import-dependent on liquid fuel but with substantial domestic gas production and policies that help limit prices on the east coast. The implication for Australian policymakers is significant. Benchmarking Australia&#8217;s strategic response against others is useful but can be misleading. The environment Australia actually experiences is shaped not only by global forces but by the choices it has already made, or failed to make, about its own momentum and direction. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/australia-releases-petrol-diesel-emergency-reserves-2026-03-13\/\">Australia&#8217;s 34 days of diesel reserves<\/a>, its non-compliant strategic fuel stockpile, and its heavy dependence on imported fuel transiting <a href=\"https:\/\/press.umich.edu\/Books\/T\/The-Future-of-the-South-China-Sea3\">vulnerable maritime corridors<\/a> are all choices that now define its apparent wind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The practical question for policymakers is not &#8220;what is happening in the global environment?&#8221; It is &#8220;given our current speed and heading, what environment are we actually experiencing?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Strategic Agility, Not Policy Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The best Olympic sailors do not succeed by predicting the weather perfectly. They succeed by developing the capability to respond when the forecast proves wrong. Australia needs to adopt the same discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The country&#8217;s strategic posture has long been built around planning comprising defence white papers, trade roadmaps, and alliance frameworks. These remain important. But they share a common vulnerability. They assume the environment will hold still long enough to execute the plan. February 2026 proved it won&#8217;t. The Supreme Court ruled against presidential tariff authority. The Strait of Hormuz closed over the weekend. And these events collided with technology revolutions already reshaping global competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What Australia needs now is not just a better plan, but a greater capacity to act when plans fail, by incorporating the <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-031-05633-8\">international business and security perspective<\/a>. That means investing in the capabilities that enable rapid adjustment. Diversified supply chains, energy reserves that meet IEA standards, deeper partnerships across the Indo-Pacific, and institutions that can make decisions at the speed the current environment demands. It means accepting that the path to resilience will look more like tacking than a straight line, and that lateral moves toward India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are not detours but the most direct route available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Olympic sailors understand something that strategic planners often resist: conditions will change, plans may fail, and competitors will not wait. The question is whether Australia has built the strategic agility to respond. Right now, with 34 days of diesel and a single maritime corridor under threat, the honest answer is not yet. But the wind has not stopped blowing, and the race is not over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/dr-arpit-raswant\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/dr-arpit-raswant\/\">Dr Arpit Raswant<\/a> is an Assistant Professor of International Business at the University of Newcastle in Australia and a Visiting Researcher in Entrepreneurship and Strategy at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom. He is a former Korea Foundation Fellow and a POSCO Asia Fellow at Korea University in South Korea. His research has been published in the Journal of International Business Studies, the Journal of World Business, the Journal of Business Research, and other leading international journals. His research focuses on firm investment from social, economic, and security perspectives and is currently leading a research program on frontier markets, including Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, and Space. &nbsp;Contact: arpit.raswant@newcastle.edu.au<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/dr-jiye-kim\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/dr-jiye-kim\/\">Dr Jiye Kim<\/a>&nbsp;is an Assistant Professor of International Security at the University of Queensland and a researcher affiliated with the University of Sydney in Australia. Her work explores international security issues using multilingual and multi-country approaches. She specialises in international relations, focusing on the Asia-Pacific region and linking international business with security challenges, including climate, health, and Space. She is the author of <a href=\"https:\/\/press.umich.edu\/Books\/T\/The-Future-of-the-South-China-Sea3\">The&nbsp;Future of the South China Sea<\/a>, published by the University of Michigan Press. Contact: jiye.kim@uq.edu.au, jiye.kim@sydney.edu.au<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/brin-liddell\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/brin-liddell\/\">Brin Liddell<\/a> is an elite Australian Olympic sailor competing in the Nacra 17, with campaigns focused on Paris 2024 and Los Angeles 2028. Alongside his sporting career, he is completing a Bachelor of Business (Innovation and Entrepreneurship) at the University of Newcastle. His interests sit at the intersection of high-performance sport, decision-making under uncertainty, and strategic thinking in dynamic environments. Contact: brin.liddell@uon.edu.au<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The events of February 2026 have confirmed that Australia can no longer afford to plan for one crisis at a time. An Australian Olympic sailor, an international business scholar, and [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":38239,"template":"","categories":[8277],"tags":[4387,8682,4421,8681,4535],"blog-post-type":[279],"region":[8457],"class_list":["post-38221","australianoutlook","type-australianoutlook","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australia","tag-australia","tag-australia-aglity","tag-iran","tag-olympic-sailing","tag-us","blog-post-type-analysis","region-oceania"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia Needs the Strategic Agility of Olympic Sailing in Uncharted Waters - Australian Institute of International Affairs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/australia-needs-the-strategic-agility-of-olympic-sailing-in-uncharted-waters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia Needs the Strategic Agility of Olympic Sailing in Uncharted Waters - Australian Institute of International Affairs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The events of February 2026 have confirmed that Australia can no longer afford to plan for one crisis at a time. 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